An increase in primary metals employment and the re-opening of the Santiam Lumber Mill in Lebanon are among the bright spots in Linn County's economy, according to Pat O'Connor, the regional labor economist with the Oregon Employment Department.

O'Connor is based in Albany. He said although Linn County's economic outlook will continue a downward trend through the rest of 2008, growth is on the horizon.

"It took the country awhile to get into the problem and it will take awhile to get out," he told the Albany Kiwanis Club Thursday at Pop's Branding Iron Restaurant.

O'Connor said an upturn could start as early as next year and though it would likely be slow, the county and state should return to historic growth rates.

The primary metals industry has been a recent bright spot in employment, showing a 12 percent increase in jobs since 2001. He expected the county would also get a boost with the re-opening of the Santiam Mill in Lebanon.

"That isn't on our books yet. It will mean an addition of 100 more jobs," he said.

Unemployment numbers in Linn consistently rank among the state's highest, but O'Connor said much of that is because a large part of the county is rural and has more seasonal employment.

He also said the recent downturn in construction has contributed to declines but housing, though down, is not painting as bad a picture as it is nationally.

"The county foreclosure rate is half the national rate. Albany didn't see as big a run-up in housing prices as high population growth areas," he said.

Among risks to monitor are inflation and the declining value of the dollar.

"So far, inflation hasn't gotten out of hand. It's certainly nowhere near what it was in the late 70s," said O'Connor.

He added that although the dollar has weakened it has resulted in increased U.S. exports, which has in turn been helpful to farmers.

O'Connor predicted that over the next 10 years Linn, Benton and Lincoln counties can expect to see steady job growth in several sectors, particularly health services.

"Baby boomers are aging and the demand for health care will be greater," he says.

O'Connor said employment in Linn County hit an all-time high of 42,000 in 2007, a 28 percent growth since 1990.

Predictions are that employment will increase by almost 5,000 jobs over the next 10-year period.