Everything can change between now and November, but the way it looks now the next president will not be John McCain.

It looks that way because while the Arizona senator has clinched the Republican nomination, he doesn't seem to enjoy having won or to look forward much to running in the fall.

On television Tuesday night, he came across as serious and even somber. Then the next day he went to the White House for an endorsement by President Bush, as though that would help him. But then he kept the president waiting for a bit, long enough for Bush to do a little soft-shoe routine for the cameras. Then, when McCain showed up, he looked grim next to the president, as though he would rather be at the dentist having a root canal than stand there.

What is it with these guys? Does anybody there still know how to run a publicity event, let alone a campaign?

McCain may be serious because these are serious times. He knows we're in a long conflict with forces that will be harder to vanquish than Soviet-led communism. The country is beset by economic problems made worse by speculators and fast-buck money men on Wall Street. So why should he be putting on a happy face?

Well, mainly because we don't vote for people who act as though there is nothing to be optimistic about.

McCain is a hero who suffered brutal mistreatment as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam. By rights, he deserves more consideration as a candidate for commander in chief during a long-simmering war than either of his Democratic rivals. But we know from the sad experience of Bob Dole how much American voters care about wartime courage when the choice is between a wounded war veteran and the glib promises of a younger voice.

McCain will have to develop a voice and demeanor that is more upbeat in the face of trouble than he has shown so far. If he does not, he can expect to be swamped in the fall by enthusiastic crowds whooping it up, in Hillary's words, for a Clinton-Obama ticket, or one that reads the other way around. (hh)